Renamo boycotts and marginalisation

Renamo is increasingly marginalised and without a strategy as it continues to reject the outcome of the December 1999 elections and to boycott political activity.

The Renamo boycott and continued claims of fraud come despite the conclusion of international and domestic observer groups that President Joaquim Chissano and Frelimo won a free, fair, and relatively well-run election.

Some questions continue to be asked by international observers, particularly about the more than 6% of polling stations excluded from the final count. (See Bulletin 24) But there is a consensus that no possible revision in the results would affect the outcome.

For that reason, Renamo and its president Afonso Dhlakama have been losing support even from their traditional backers in the international community. This was shown must clearly in May. Renamo had issued a statement calling on donors to boycott the flood reconstruction conference in Rome 3-4 May and not to give money to the "illegal" government. In fact, more money was pledged than was asked for.

Dhlakama has repeatedly called the new government "illegitimate". He consistently demanded a recount of the December election results and negotiations with the government. In the first parliament session after the election, Renamo members took their seats each morning (allowing them to collect their salaries) but then walked out as soon as discussion began on what they considered government business.

There were some secret but authorised talks between Transport Minister Tomás Salomão and Raul Domingos, which were broken off in May after Renamo revealed that they were taking place. Renamo was demanding what Dhlakama called power-sharing ("partilha do poder entre os dois partidos"), including at least the right to appoint governors in the six provinces when they won majorities in the December elections. There were also persistent rumours that Renamo was demanding economic benefits, both for leaders (perhaps in the form of shares in privatised companies) and for the party.

With the breakdown of the talks and growing embassy discontent at the Renamo boycott, President Joaquim Chissano moved to further marginalise and disrupt Renamo. In a speech in early June, Chissano claimed that Domingos had asked for $500,000 for himself to pay off a business debt, $1 million a month for Renamo, and $10,000 a month for Dhlakama.

Domingos denied the President's version of events, but the revelation split Renamo. On 7 July the Renamo National Council suspended Domingos while the matter was investigated. Until now, Raul Domingos has been seen as the second most important person in Renamo. He led the Renamo team at the 1990-92 Rome peace talks and then was head of the parliamentary group in the 1994-99 AR. Renamo's failure to re-appoint him as head of the group this year, while keeping him on the AR permanent commission, was seen as a first step in downgrading a potential competitor to Dhlakama.

Then on 14 July Chissano announced new governors for all 10 provinces, without consulting Dhlakama and without making any concessions to Renamo.

Although power-sharing and the right to name governors had never been a serious possibility, Dhlakama's policy had been based on gaining at least some concessions from the government.

At a 17 July press conference, Dhlakama was outraged and said that the appointment of the governors meant that Frelimo and Chissano had said "no, no, no" to power sharing. As a result, "the Renamo Electoral Union and Dhlakama will no longer cooperate in the maintenance of peace in this country," he said.

He said "I will no longer appeal for calm in the unfavoured sectors of the population. Since January, thousands and thousands of people have wanted to demonstrate and start violence, but I have always said, please, no and no. We are trying to resolve this situation peacefully." He later went on to say that "I will no longer appeal to the people to avoid violence. That is to say, from today, people can start acts of violence as they have wanted to do since January. I am not calling on anyone to be violent, but I will no longer stop my supporters from demonstrating against the despotism of Chissano."

After the press conference, Dhlakama told the weekly Savana that he was calling on foreign investors to stop investing in Mozambique.

 
Renamo has 'lost everything'

"With the nomination last week of all the governors, it is clear that Afonso Dhlakama has lost all that he wanted to gain: lost the possibility to force a recount of the vote, lost his demand for an early election, and lost the possibility the president might nominate some governors suggested by Renamo. Thus, Dhlakama has lost every that he had been crowing were the political victories of Renamo," wrote Savana in an editorial on 21 July.

The independent press, which is often more sympathetic to Renamo than Frelimo, was highly critical of Renamo and frustrated with the way its only strategy seems to be boycotts. The daily MediaFax on 21 July commented that boycotts have proved ineffective -- like "trying to stop the wind with your hands". The boycott of local government elections in 1998 only gave total Frelimo control, when Renamo could have won some cities. Walking out of the CNE during the last hours of the count left Frelimo members to do what they wanted. Abandoning parliament sessions leaves Frelimo to do as it wishes.

Savana on 21 July asked "why has Renamo lost everything?" The answer is that "it is not organised to win anything". It has wasted an entire year and "is not preparing for municipal elections in 2003 or general elections in 2004."

"Renamo's agenda is totally determined by Frelimo," commented Savana on 14 July. "Renamo is not even thinking about a political programme of an alternative government, capable of galvanising the country to prefer it as a real alternative in government to Frelimo".

 
Renamo non-payment campaign provokes Frelimo over-reaction

In the provinces where Renamo UE won a majority of the votes, Renamo has been organising campaigns to urge people not to not pay fees and taxes to an "illegitimate" government. Market fees, in particular, are an important source of revenue for local government. There have been press reports of a number of arrests of Renamo organisers.

The then governor of Niassa, Aires Bonifácio Aly, was quoted in Notícias on 30 May as saying that Renamo was acting illegally by encouraging people not to pay taxes, not have their children vaccinated, and to not send their children to school because they would only be taught about Marxism at Frelimo schools.

This is inciting civil disobedience and rebellion and would be resisted with force and "administrative measures", he said.

Clearly Renamo organisers are trying to provoke government officials to overreact, and some are doing so.

In the only serious incident, so far, between 4 and 8 Renamo supporters were killed by police in Aúbe in Angoche district, Nampula, on 5 May. The incident apparently began when a Renamo organiser was arrested for trying to convince market traders not to pay their weekly market fees. A large number of Renamo supporters attacked the police station to try to free their man, and the police opened fire on the crowd.

+ Renamo has not yet found a way to participate as a practical opposition on the ground, and sees the role of an "opposition" as simply to oppose anything the government does. A tiny example occurred last year in Marromeu. The newly elected mayor (council president) and assembly saw that one of the most strongly felt concerns was that women did not like going down to the river to get water because they were attacked by crocodiles, so the council proposed to build shallow wells in several neighbourhoods. Renamo has a majority in the town, but it boycotted the local elections in 1998, so the mayor and assembly are Frelimo. Renamo organised local men to oppose the construction of "Frelimo" wells, even though local women clearly supported the project.

+ The Attorney General's office in early August asked the Standing Commission of parliament to lift the immunity of two Renamo deputies (MPs) to allow criminal proceedings against them. Manecas Daniel and José Manteigas of Zambézia province are accused of inciting people to violence during the 1999 elections campaign. The head of the Renamo parliamentary group, Ossufo Quitine, denied that any crime had been committed.