MISSED OPPORTUNITIES -- 1
Renamo turned down chance to nominate governors

In the secret negotiations between Frelimo and Renamo early last year, Tomás Salomão for Frelimo offered Renamo negotiator Raul Domingos the opportunity for Renamo to nominate some governors. But Renamo president Afonso Dhlakama overruled Domingos and rejected the offer.

At the time, President Joaquim Chissano had pointedly not named new governors, even though all ministers had been named. As he has consistently done, Dhlakama was demanding the right to name governors in the six provinces where Renamo won a majority of the votes.

Salomão's proposal was complex. In three provinces, Manica, Sofala and Zambézia, Renamo would propose a short-list of three candidates in each province, and President Chissano would agree to appoint one of the three. In the other three provinces, Nampula, Niassa and Tete, Frelimo would nominate a short-list of three candidates in each province, and President Chissano would agree to appoint the one chosen by Renamo.

In all cases, the person choosing among the three would have the right to interview the candidates and negotiate. Renamo could try to reach an agreement with one of the Frelimo nominees to meet some of its needs, while Frelimo would try to choose the Renamo nominee most likely to implement the government programme and work with the government.

The proposal was face-saving for the government, because President Chissano still had the opportunity to choose, albeit from a short-list. But Renamo was clearly to play a central role in choosing governors.

But this was not acceptable to Dhlakama, who rejected the offer out of hand, continuing to demand the right to name all six governors.

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES -- 2
Local government: patronage and power

It is widely believed that Afonso Dhlakama's demands for governorships are fuelled at least partly by need to satisfy the demands of former guerrillas and party militants in the north for jobs and power. Yet when Renamo boycotted local elections in 1998, it effectively lost the chance to provide jobs and influence to hundreds of its members. Thus pressure for governors now seems partly to make up for what many in Renamo now see as a mistake in 1998.

The decision to boycott was taken by Dhlakama in Maputo, and was opposed by many Renamo activists in the north. Renamo officials seem to have underestimated the real power and patronage which is possible in the new local governments. They argued that the central government retained power to direct local authorities, but this was never true.

Furthermore, the new local authorities have had significantly increased income, which many have used to hire extra staff for rubbish collection, garden maintenance, etc. This income has also been used to pay elected members of local assemblies.

If it had stood in local elections, Renamo would have won control of 10 or more municipalities, which would have ensured salaries for hundreds of Renamo supporters. In large municipalities like Beira, municipal presidents have more practical power than governors.

Municipalities have wide economic powers, and Renamo could have used these to assist and encourage Renamo-supporting business people.

Afonso Dhlakama, in his statement to a press conference on 30 March, complained that Renamo-UE members are being excluded from the administrations of the new elected local governments. He seems to have forgotten he boycotted the new elected local governments.

 
Why Governors?

Some in Renamo-UE argue that demanding governors is foolish, because governors have little power. They are part of the government, and are expected to carry out the government programme and instructions from Maputo.

David Aloni said: "We accept that the governor does represent the president in the province, and must follow the government programme. But the governor is also expected to satisfy the aspirations of the people. The governor is the 'chief' in his area" and has sufficient discretionary power to take independent actions.

Dhlakama constantly stresses that simply appointing the six governors would go a long way to resolve the problems. Aloni compares the election situation to the United States and says that if Renamo gets its six governors, "we would shut our eyes and let Chissano govern, just as Bush is allowed to govern even though he did not win."

Aloni sees the appointment of governors as "psychologically important" and argues that it would create stability because "our people are more willing to follow orders from their own man". Dhlakama claimed at his press conference that "every day people are being killed and jailed because they voted for Renamo", and governors would provide some protection for Renamo supporters.

One senior figure on the more cooperative wing of Renamo even suggested that Renamo governors should be seen as a trial of party "co-habitation" as takes place in Europe.
 

 
Government losing propaganda war

Diplomats told the Bulletin that the government is losing the propaganda war. This is despite Renamo disruptions in parliament, which diplomats opposed, and Renamo's hard line demand on governors, which diplomats accept cannot be granted.

Two factors seem to fuel diplomatic discontent with Frelimo. First, the government is held responsible for growing corruption and there is a feeling that a Frelimo hard line helped to provoke the violence last November. Second, the diplomats feel that government is in more of a position to be conciliatory, and to make concessions.

In part this has led the diplomatic community to be less questioning of Renamo claims. One diplomat, for example, told the Bulletin that Renamo's demands in its letter before the first meeting were "not unrealistic" - apparently forgetting that the demands included immediate abolition of the justice system and Renamo naming officials at all levels in six provinces.

It is clear that diplomats feel that Frelimo and government could be offering more. For example, Renamo has demanded that some of its people be put on the boards of Radio Moçambique and the government-controlled private company which owns the daily Notícias, and this has been rejected. But European diplomats point out that opposition directors are common on state radios in Europe, as a way of ensuring fairness.

Similarly, Renamo argues for places on the boards of state companies, noting that in more established democracies changes in government ensure that boards tend to be mixed. That has not happened in Mozambique, so appointments of the opposition are needed now to speed the process.

A diplomat noted: "The government must throw Renamo a few appointments. There is real pressure from the international community for government to do something."

On the other hand, the Renamo walkout - and especially breaking off the working groups - came as a shock to diplomats. They had argued that even if the two presidents were at loggerheads over governors, what was really important was that the discussion process was continuing at other levels and seemed to be increasingly effective.